Arrested Development - Ex-Pats Mexico

Brief Synopsis

This monograph is intended to help political, military, policy, opinion, and academic leaders think strategically about explanations, consequences, and responses that might apply to the volatile and dangerous new dynamic that has inserted itself into the already crowded Mexican and hemispheric security arena, that is, the privatized Zeta military organization. In Mexico, this new dynamic involves the migration of traditional hard-power national security and sovereignty threats from traditional state and nonstate adversaries to hard and soft power threats from professional private nonstate military organizations. This dynamic also involves a more powerful and ambiguous mix of terrorism, crime, and conventional war tactics, operations, and strategies than experienced in the past. Moreover, this violence and its perpetrators tend to create and consolidate semi-autonomous enclaves (criminal free-states) that develop in to quasi-states—and what the Mexican government calls “Zones of Impunity.” All together, these dynamics not only challenge Mexican security, stability, and sovereignty, but, if left improperly understood and improperly countered, also challenge the security and stability of the United States and Mexico’s other neighbors.
Authored by Dr. Max G. Manwaring.
Position: Research Professor of Military Strategy

Area(s) of Expertise: Theory of grand strategy; U.S. national security policy and strategy; military strategy; military and nonmilitary operations other than war; political-military affairs; and Latin America.
(717) 245-4076
Email Dr. Max G. ManwaringDr. Max G. Manwaring is a Professor of Military Strategy in the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College (USAWC). He has held the General Douglas MacArthur Chair of Research at the USAWC, and is a retired U.S. Army colonel. He has served in various civilian and military positions, including the U.S. Southern Command, the Defense Intelligence Agency, Dickinson College, and Memphis University. Dr. Manwaring is the author and coauthor of several articles, chapters, and books dealing with Latin American security affairs, political-military affairs, and insurgency and counterinsurgency. His most recent book is Insurgency, Terrorism, and Crime: Shadows from the Past and Portent for the Future, University of Oklahoma Press, 2008. His most recent article is “Sovereignty under Siege: Gangs and Other Criminal Organizations in Central America and Mexico,” in Air & Space Power Journal (in Spanish), forthcoming. His most recent SSI monograph is A Contemporary Challenge to State Sovereignty: Gangs and Other Illicit Transnational Criminal Organizations in Central America, El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Brazil. Dr. Manwaring holds an M.A. and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Illinois, and is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College.

Download for free: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.ar ... fm?puZETAS:

THE “WHO,” “WHAT,” AND “WHY”
ARCHITECTURE

The “Who,” “What,” and “Why” case study
methodological architecture focuses on protagonist
leadership and organization, operations, motives, and
linkages. Long-standing common wisdom has it that
virtually any nonstate political actor with any kind of
resolve can take advantage of the instability inherent
in anything like the current Mexican internal security
situation. The tendency is that the best-motivated and
best-armed organization on the scene, or an alliance of
these entities, will eventually control that instability
for its own purposes. Carlos Marighella, in his wellknown
Manual of the Urban Guerrilla, elaborates on that
wisdom: “A terrorist act is no different than any other
urban guerrilla tactic, apart from the apparent facility
with which it can be carried out. That will depend on
planning and organization [and its resultant shock
value].”36 Thus, even though other privatized military
organizations (including enforcer gangs) are operating
in Mexico today, the Zetas appear to be the group
most likely to be able to achieve their objectives. Zeta
organization and planning has been outstanding, and
the shock value of Zeta operations has been unequaled.
Thus, as Marighella teaches, terrorism is a major force
multiplier—“a weapon the revolution cannot do without"

This is an excellent read that goes beyond what the media portrays.

Read this monograph yesterday(warning: 35 pages)

as have been interested in this topic for some time and especially where the Zetas fit into the overall scheme.

It has seemed the Zetas have managed to come quite far in terms of cartel influence in a relative short time and I have often wondered why. This article spells out some details of the organization's superior organizational and planning skills and the unequaled shock value of many of their operations.

Last year, there was this article by some U.S. military think-tank which bandied around the word, 'failed state' a lot which was cri ticially suspect, given the think-tank's bias and influence. This writer, Manwaring suggests that groups like the Zeta are not trying to target Mexico as a state to fail but rather, it is in their express interest(business-wise) for Mexico only to be a weakened state.

For their purposes, that there still exist political, economic, and social order in Mexico so that the gangs can operate successfully within those institutions. Just sufficiently weakened, however so that little if anything of their operations are seriously impeded. Manwaring describes this situation better, than I do here.

The article worth a read. Imo. And personally, archived for further reference.

And Wen, what do you think of articles/observers who are saying this is a cultural war, a "civil war" if you like? This is why, in many ways, it is unwinnable. The old PRI cultural-political system, which ran things right down to the local jefe level (deciding who sold the candles, who sold the Coca-Cola) - for over 72 years straight. It garnered a certain way of thinking - much like it did in the Soviet Union. This is why in today's Russia, groups like the mafia (organized crime) are able to control so much of the economy and culture. The mafia becomes 'Us" and the government becomes 'Them'. Do you see what I am getting at? Mexico (and Russia) have a unique history where the words "mafia" and "duly elected governing party" could have been exchanged, although never in an actual vote. There will always be a gang war in Mexico, but there will never be enough imbalance (again) for a class war, or a race war.

The powers that be, have to find out, from many shining examples, how to change the public's perception, especially an uneducated, desperately poor public, that their "Robin Hood and his Merry Men", is just a bunch of self serving, vicious thugs. This is what they have been able to pull off on Pablo Escobar, and now Columbia is relatively stable and prosperous. Is the "Sheriiff of Nottingham" running Columbia any better than poor olde Robin? Probably not - but there is fun of history!

Your comment, Garygo about, "the mafia becomes 'Us" and the government becomes 'Them' is perhaps, the concept behind, another word, 'narco-socialism'.

Historically, am led to believe by Mexican friends and opinion makers(books, politicians, media etc.) the government is not to be 'trusted'. Who then, can be trusted? The people you know well. Family, close friends and even then, the Mexicans of my acquaintence tend through experience and savvy perception, narrow this to a very short list.

OK. So your uncle's a Narco. (Or your cousin etc.) And they're good to you, in more ways than one. Taking care of your physical needs, food, clothing, shelter, your social needs, padrinos, a loan in a serious pinch, medicines, funeral costs, etc. The myriad of special events socially, that give people, standing in their family, their community. In other words, aside from selling drugs, in the receiver's opinion, a most helpful person. Yes, mafia-esque scenario here.

The thing is, these narcos(gangs) etc. provide the 'trickle-down' effect of money to many relatives, friends, el pueblo, that the higher-ups in Mexico's class-ridden society basically historically, prefer to ignore.

The PRI was often described as the oldest revolutionary party holding office in the world. However over that time, corruption became instititionalized as well and the stories are legion in that regard. There was however, quite a number of government programs put into place and existing today that still reflect the socialist roots of the party's origin. The PRI was finally ousted but the general public disatisfaction with the Panista governments, has grown during the past two election periods.

Members of groups, like the Zetas, know their society, inside-out. And are positioning themselve, quite expertly, to take advantage of recent economic/social factors.

>Do you see what I am getting at? Mexico (and Russia) have a unique history where the words "mafia" and "duly elected governing party" could have been exchanged, although never in an actual vote. There will always be a gang war in Mexico, but there will never be enough imbalance (again) for a class war, or a race war.

Events occurring in Russia since the Fall of the Berlin Wall have been fascinating as well, to watch unfold over time. The rise of the new, oligarchs and their recent fall, the election of Putin, and the politics involved extending his term of influence etc.

Something, have just about never heard discussed on Mex-topic forums is the psychological legacy of the Mexican Revolution. Over and over again, Mexicans have told me, especially the guys over 70 that that experience that lasted beyond the actual years of fighting, was tantamount to 'civil war'. A situation, the Mexicans said 'never to be repeated'. And in some ways, perhaps the reason for the decades longevity(stranglehold of the PRI?) on the political process.

Could this aversion to 'brother fighting brother' also contribute to the (dare I say it) covert support of many Mexicans of the growing narco phenomena?

Then there's that whole Malaverde(the narco saint) Santo Muerto(the death saint), the narco corridos, the Family in Michoacan, the this and the that, that so dovetail into the Mexican historical cultural experience.

And again, the money, the 'support', all kinds that come from an accessible trickle-down as compared with many Mexicans, not holding out any hope from outside sources(Canada/U.S.A.) or the current federal government.

But then. What do I know?

Those are good analogies and analysis .. interesting -- of what the driving forces are in a society that is experiencing poverty, a history of corruption by the elite, and a lack of strong and structured governmental help.
With small and limited experience, I have heard the same inferences from young Mexican men. They have no trust or loyalty to the formal government structures and will do what they need to do to get by on their own. An attitude that I found strange at the time but which I am starting to understand by what is happening there now and by some published articles as well as your thoughts.

Six Ideas for Re-thinking the War in Mexico.
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebo ... war-mexico

In Spanish
http://www.proceso.com.mx/opinion_artic ... culo=72882

I just re-watched Michael Moore's movie "Sicko". In the movie, he was conducting a roundtable discussion with a group of Americans living and working in France. One of the segments was a discussion relating to the attitudes of the people towards their government. It was their contention that in the U.S. and other countries, the people were afraid of their government while in France the government was afraid of its people. Interesting?

I would have to think that the relationship in Mexico would be the former and that leaves a wide open door for the Zetas and Narcos.

Ever see a movie called "V" For Vendetta? Awfully violent, but a good movie nevertheless. The author's message was..."People should nor be afraid of the government, government should be afraid of the people." Lizzy

What aren't the people in the U.S. not afraid of? It's a society that thrives on fear. Fear is delivered dozens of times a day with reports of people getting sick, or a car is unsafe, or a medicine is dangerous. Is there anything on the news being reported that isn't intended to cause fear? If the people don't get enough fear on TV, they head for the amusement parks to find the scariest ride.

People in the U.S. love being scared and always on alert. Otherwise, why would so many people have fallen for the Iraq WMD story? There must be a boogie man and we must kill the boogie man and then everything will be perfect.